Super Bowl LX matched the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots in New Orleans on 8 February 2026. A lot of pre-game talk treated it as a coin flip between two elite sides. I ran two models on the 2025 season — a FiveThirtyEight-style Elo, and a historical simulation — and locked the numbers the day before the game.
They did not say coin flip. Seattle went in with a 72.7-point Elo advantage, which translated to about a 60.3% win probability. That is a real edge, and still plenty of room to be wrong in a one-game sample.
The full Quarto article is the piece to read: model specification, Elo paths through the season, score simulation, and the usual caveats about forecasting a single match. Code and locked prediction files are in the same repository.